Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the introduction of a new 28-point plan for ending the war appeared – temporarily – to have been defused. A senior US official spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: another massive barrage of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the current period. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from multiple capitals. Significant resources is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the key method for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been dispatched to counter approaching guided weapons flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by allied countries. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: perhaps the approaching threat won't cause damage this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Following this, a automatic firearm engaged a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – probably imported technology. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
With pauses, this carried on until dawn. Kyiv greeted the daybreak reports: multiple fatalities, devastation and heating outages in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As always, everyone still went about their day – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The detailed framework from American leadership provoked deep reactions, discussion and serious worry – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, no doubt, persist.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a principle familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The US administration believes that it is unrealistic to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it currently occupies in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does nothing to deter Moscow, through diplomacy or military means, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its advantage in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the maximum possible gain is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Ukraine's government believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a complete military breakdown until situations evolve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no genuine requirements for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their attention does not move to homefront challenges. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after recent developments, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These conflicting dynamics are driving the talks.
Summary and Prospects
It took a just a single week to eliminate the proposed articles of the most recent proposal. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all served their function.
While new initiatives based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to counter political attacks from Washington that are based on Russian demands and reflect certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to defend against evening bombardments will, for the predictable period, largely rely on continued Western support.
