A decade following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and voters drifted into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction swiftly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The duo have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the victorious side don't know quite what it is that they have achieved."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say this point is approaching, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any government figures or campaigners seek to involve themselves even with the essentials. To illustrate, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the status quo. Both composes two articles that strive for neutrality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, assembling financial and societal data, past examples and constitutional models.
Debates encompass national emblems, duties, healthcare systems, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of loyalist violence. The objective is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the idea that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just stating: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his generation is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "There might be just a mad or a bad or a feckless official who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, valid points, he stated. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will in the end lose but all factions has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster must join the debate, urged O’Toole. "This is about Britain. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
